I have an admission to make. In the middle of discussion in a Philosophy class about Determinism and Free-Will I had a moment of false-realization: I thought that there was no point In arguing about which system this universe is running on, If this world we live in is a deterministic or a willed world doesn’t really matter, right? Yes, I know, a pretty dull view that is probably the result of me not thinking in any order further than first-order. This view, however, is what brings us to today’s essay: Imagine a world where we knew for a fact, beyond any doubt the system of fate that exists. Despite being of importance, for relative simplicity I’ll ignore minority groups that worldview-opposing facts doesn’t concern (eg. Flat earthers) and majority groups who these worldview-opposing facts do concern (eg. Major religions, some ideologies). Shall we begin?
But before we go on our little journey I’ll make you an offer you can/can’t/can’t can’t refuse, you can have a life where you carry the heavy weight of fate in your hand, or In a world where you get carried by it. But first, let’s tour these worlds!
Let’s start with visiting a Deterministic world, and let’s start with The could-have-been past.
Imagine being a villager in pre-enlightenment 17th century England. An average villager’s understanding of the workings of the universe is incomparable to the average middle-schooler today, but they know for a fact that the world they live in is the only possible world to live in. Since everything is predetermined, villagers don’t hold moral responsibilities for their actions (They couldn’t help but do so!) and chaos rampages through the village! Wait? Chaos? We don’t do that here! It's the way things ought to be, who are we to challenge that? You see, you as a villager were pre-determined by whoever pulled the first trigger to work the fields till you die, that Lord over there was born a Lord because that is the bes.. Only way things could be! You don’t have to go, ply your trade and work for a better life (and be the basis for an industrial revolution), you are working the land for a reason!
Okay let's jump to the Far Future. You are a 20-something urbnite lucky to be born in a universe-simulation-tech leading country. Fortunately, Your government has developed the secretive best-in-class Life-Path-Determiner™! This program simulates the entire universe -down to the smallest particle [2]- and then accurately predicts everyone’s future! Ideas are easy to come by since we already know what to work on (only one possible road on the way to full knowledge!). You work in the Department of Deforcing, a research department trying to mess with nature, you however don’t know about the existence of the Life-Path-Determiner! You are asked to go make an experiment. The way experiments go is as follows:
Someone’s life is determined and you are asked by the higher-ups to go and try to sabotage his date.
You go visit that person before he’s determined to go on a date
You try to sabotage that date, and sometimes you fail and sometimes you succeed.
The Computer is always right either way
The government is happy with the way things are going and decide to run a simulation on the country’s future. The results however are frightening. The evil country will launch a nuclear war on your country and your country will not survive! (no matter what of course). Even worse the simulation results get leaked and all the citizens freak out, panic, and chao.. sorry order ensues! What a bleak world, huh? You hoped you could change it, you say? Well lucky you! Let’s hop over to our beloved Willed Universe!
Imagine being a villager in that oddly-similar pre-enlightenment 17th century England. Today is a very exciting day! It's ”burn a thief” day! The villagers gather in the town square to witness the rare event where a thief is burned on the stake. This event is rare since thieves know for a fact that the only punishment is excruciating death. Why so merciless? Well, everyone holds sole moral-responsibility for their actions and well, theft is a bad thing. Why death though? The people know for a fact that the world is free-willed, so that damn thief could have chosen to work instead of stealing, and If he could have done so but chose the lesser action then he is from an evil character, and deserves to die! Wait a minute, his character doesn’t matter. life in this world is different, you can choose your actions and they apply no matter your past actions! Do you want to hop to the future before he burns? Okay, the choice is yours.
In a vaguely similar country in the far-far future, the national government has developed a neat piece of technology: a decision making algorithm! Let’s pause for a moment and take a look at the human’s decision making process in this world.
Let’s say Youssef knows for a fact that he can have his choice between multiple tomorrows, before bed he imagines two likely scenarios: Staying in bed or going to his philosophy lecture. The way Youssef would approach his decision is through executing a decision making algorithm fairly similar to this [1]:
List all your possible actions. For my lecture example, that was “Go to lecture” and “Stay home.”
Predict the state of the universe after pretending that you will take each possible action. We end up with “Youssef has learnt about Metaphysics but not rested” and “Buck has not learnt about Metaphysics but has rested.”
Decide which is your favorite outcome. In this case, Youssef what rather have learnt stuff.
Thus Youssef chooses to go to his Lecture Instead.
That is cool and all, but what about that government program? Since the government wants to serve the best interests of its citizens, it has developed a complex software that is capable of modeling a user’s choices based on the best outcome probabilistically! A CEO can optimize his business deals, or not optimize it! A High School graduate can choose the major that suits his abilities the most, or not! Innovation is harder to come by in this world than in the purely deterministic world, but the journey is the destination, right?
There is one thing that grinds my gears, though. See these homeless people? What a bunch of sore losers! Rather than getting off their asses and going to work they choose to cry and weep about the non-existence of government social programs, they want to turn our universe into a compatibilist one! They can go live there if they want, it's a possibility. Now where do you want to live?
Sources of Inspiration